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Polessya vs Kudrivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Polessya

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLW ·

UPCOMING

Kudrivka

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDL ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-14.6%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-19.4%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-16.7%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-15.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 82.0% 1.22 -24.4%

Draw 22.0% 21.1% 4.75 +2.7%

Away win 16.0% 7.7% 13.00 +64.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.5% 2.60 -17.6%

BTTS 50.8% 46.5% 2.15 +9.2%

Home O1.5 60.2% 74.1% 1.35 -18.7%

Away O1.5 23.5% 16.7% 6.00 +24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.8%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polessya2.1

Kudrivka0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POLESSYA · PPG 1.67

KUDRIVKA · PPG 0.72

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.26 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Polessya (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -24.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.7%

Kudrivka (A) 16.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +64.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polessya face Kudrivka in Ukraine - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polessya a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Kudrivka 16%, so Polessya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Polessya and 0.8 for Kudrivka (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polessya are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.72 for Kudrivka. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +84.9%.

Polessya vs Kudrivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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