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Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Kryvbas KR

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDL ·

UPCOMING

Kolos Kovalivka

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.9%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.5%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 33.3% 3.00 +34.1%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 29.1% 45.5% 2.20 -21.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 45.5% 2.20 +11.3%

Over 3.5 29.9% 25.0% 4.00 +11.8%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 39.8% 33.9% 2.95 +17.4%

Away O1.5 34.3% 42.6% 2.35 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kryvbas KR1.4

Kolos Kovalivka1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYVBAS KR · PPG 1.35

KOLOS KOVALIVKA · PPG 1.15

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kryvbas KR (H) 44.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +34.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Kolos Kovalivka (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kryvbas KR face Kolos Kovalivka in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kryvbas KR a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Kolos Kovalivka 29%, so Kryvbas KR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kryvbas KR and 1.2 for Kolos Kovalivka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.15 for Kolos Kovalivka. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +28.7%.

Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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