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Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Karpaty

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWD ·

UPCOMING

Shakhtar Donetsk

PPG 2.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.3%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.4%1-112.4%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.2%2-18.3%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.7%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 17.4% 5.75 +136.3%

Draw 25.4% 23.8% 4.20 +4.0%

Away win 33.5% 66.7% 1.50 -49.8%

Over 2.5 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.6% 2.59 -18.2%

BTTS 54.6% 56.2% 1.78 -2.8%

Home O1.5 38.9% 26.3% 3.80 +47.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 63.3% 1.58 -33.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karpaty1.3

Shakhtar Donetsk1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KARPATY · PPG 1.79

SHAKHTAR DONETSK · PPG 2.31

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karpaty (H) 41.1%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +136.3%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +4.0%

Shakhtar Donetsk (A) 33.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -49.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karpaty face Shakhtar Donetsk in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karpaty a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Shakhtar Donetsk 34%, so Karpaty are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karpaty and 1.3 for Shakhtar Donetsk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karpaty are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 2.31 for Shakhtar Donetsk. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +61.5%.

Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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