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Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 10:00

Chornomorets

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

UPCOMING

Livyi Bereh

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-112.4%0-26.6%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.7%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-17.3%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.5%3-12.6%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 36.4% 2.75 -1.6%

Draw 28.5% 33.9% 2.95 -9.6%

Away win 35.7% 40.0% 2.50 -10.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 44.4% 2.25 -3.9%

Over 3.5 20.9% 23.8% 4.20 -7.3%

BTTS 48.8% 54.1% 1.85 -9.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

Away O1.5 32.5% 38.5% 2.60 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.8%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chornomorets1.1

Livyi Bereh1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHORNOMORETS · PPG 1.50

LIVYI BEREH · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.02, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chornomorets (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.6%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.6%

Livyi Bereh (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chornomorets face Livyi Bereh in Ukraine - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chornomorets a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Livyi Bereh 36%, so Chornomorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Chornomorets and 1.1 for Livyi Bereh (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chornomorets are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.42 for Livyi Bereh.

Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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