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Mladost Lucani vs Radnicki NIS Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Mladost Lucani

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

UPCOMING

Radnicki NIS

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-110.3%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-17.8%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 38.2% 2.62 +22.6%

Draw 29.1% 32.3% 3.10 -5.9%

Away win 24.1% 38.2% 2.62 -22.1%

Over 2.5 39.9% 46.5% 2.15 -14.2%

Over 3.5 20.9% 25.3% 3.95 -10.5%

BTTS 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

Home O1.5 33.9% 37.7% 2.65 -10.2%

Away O1.5 19.3% 37.7% 2.65 -29.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost Lucani1.2

Radnicki NIS0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 1.59

RADNICKI NIS · PPG 1.04

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 1.97 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mladost Lucani (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +22.6%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.9%

Radnicki NIS (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost Lucani face Radnicki NIS in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost Lucani a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Radnicki NIS 24%, so Mladost Lucani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mladost Lucani and 0.7 for Radnicki NIS (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost Lucani are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.04 for Radnicki NIS. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +10.2%.

Mladost Lucani vs Radnicki NIS Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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