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Radnik Surdulica vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Radnik Surdulica

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

UPCOMING

Cukaricki

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+16.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.6%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.3%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.5%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 46.3% 2.16 +8.4%

Draw 23.8% 30.8% 3.25 -13.6%

Away win 26.0% 32.3% 3.10 -11.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 51.3% 1.95 +16.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 29.4% 3.40 +23.8%

BTTS 58.0% 57.8% 1.73 +0.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 45.5% 2.20 +9.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 35.7% 2.80 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.0%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radnik Surdulica1.7

Cukaricki1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RADNIK SURDULICA · PPG 1.86

CUKARICKI · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Radnik Surdulica (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +8.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.6%

Cukaricki (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radnik Surdulica face Cukaricki in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radnik Surdulica a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Cukaricki 26%, so Radnik Surdulica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Radnik Surdulica and 1.1 for Cukaricki (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radnik Surdulica are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.19 for Cukaricki. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.8%.

Radnik Surdulica vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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