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FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

FK Crvena Zvezda

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

FK Partizan

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 79% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.3%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.4%1-14.3%1-21.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.0%2-17.1%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.9%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-019.3%4+-115.3%4+-26.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.4% 76.9% 1.30 +0.6%

Draw 14.8% 20.0% 5.00 -15.6%

Away win 7.7% 14.3% 7.00 -27.7%

Over 2.5 68.4% 78.1% 1.28 -12.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 59.9% 1.67 -17.5%

BTTS 53.0% 69.4% 1.44 -23.7%

Home O1.5 77.9% 80.0% 1.25 -2.6%

Away O1.5 23.1% 36.4% 2.75 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 77% / xG 3.3-0.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.0%

#2 2–0 9.0%

#3 4–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Crvena Zvezda3.3

FK Partizan0.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FK CRVENA ZVEZDA · PPG 2.50

FK PARTIZAN · PPG 1.53

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

79%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.54 for Home, form 2.50 vs 1.53 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FK Crvena Zvezda (H) 77.4%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV +0.6%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -15.6%

FK Partizan (A) 7.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Crvena Zvezda face FK Partizan in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda a 77% chance, the draw 15% and FK Partizan 8%, so FK Crvena Zvezda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.8 for FK Partizan (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Crvena Zvezda are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.53 for FK Partizan. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +16.5%.

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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