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Mirassol vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 23:30

Mirassol

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Corinthians

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-113.5%0-26.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.6%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.8%2-16.8%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.3%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 43.1% 2.32 -23.9%

Draw 34.9% 32.3% 3.10 +8.2%

Away win 32.3% 31.3% 3.20 +3.4%

Over 2.5 32.3% 43.5% 2.30 -25.7%

Over 3.5 14.2% 23.1% 4.33 -38.5%

BTTS 41.9% 51.3% 1.95 -18.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob41.9%

D 35% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirassol1.0

Corinthians1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.83

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

42%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.83) vs Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Mirassol (H) 32.8%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -23.9%

Draw 34.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.2%

Corinthians (A) 32.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirassol face Corinthians in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirassol a 33% chance, the draw 35% and Corinthians 32%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mirassol and 1.0 for Corinthians (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirassol are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.17 for Corinthians. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Mirassol vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions