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San Diego W. W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 23:00

San Diego W. W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bay FC W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.0%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-110.0%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.2%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 71.4% 1.40 -17.7%

Draw 24.2% 23.8% 4.20 +1.6%

Away win 17.0% 14.8% 6.75 +14.8%

Over 2.5 57.9% 58.8% 1.70 -1.6%

Over 3.5 35.5% 36.4% 2.75 -2.4%

BTTS 56.5% 54.6% 1.83 +3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.5%

H 59% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Diego W. W2.0

Bay FC W1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DIEGO W. W · PPG 2.00

BAY FC W · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

San Diego W. W (H) 58.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -17.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.6%

Bay FC W (A) 17.0%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Diego W. W face Bay FC W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego W. W a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Bay FC W 17%, so San Diego W. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for San Diego W. W and 1.0 for Bay FC W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego W. W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Bay FC W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 0-1.

San Diego W. W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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