Today / USA - NWSL Women / San Diego W. W vs Bay FC W
San Diego W. W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women
Group Stage ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 23:00
// Model verdict
Home 68% chance
Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 98 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 59% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%
Form & verdict
SAN DIEGO W. W · PPG 2.00
BAY FC W · PPG 1.50
Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
San Diego W. W face Bay FC W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego W. W a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Bay FC W 17%, so San Diego W. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for San Diego W. W and 1.0 for Bay FC W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego W. W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Bay FC W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 0-1.