Monterey Bay vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

USA - USL Championship Group Stage Cardinale Stadium Sunday, May 3, 2026 23:00

Monterey Bay PPG 0.33

1-2 HIT CS5

FC Tulsa PPG 1.33

Away· +27.1% 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterey Bay face FC Tulsa in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterey Bay a 17% chance, the draw 29% and FC Tulsa 54%, so FC Tulsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Monterey Bay and 1.5 for FC Tulsa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterey Bay are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.33 for FC Tulsa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 16.6%

Odds: 2.62 EV: -56.5%

Draw 29.4%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -0.0%

Away 54.1%

Odds: 2.35 EV: +27.1%

Model lean: Away

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 39.8% Odds: 1.85 -26.4%

Over 3.5 19.6% Odds: 3.20 -37.3%

BTTS 43.1% Odds: 1.67 -28.0%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-2 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Monterey Bay

0.75

FC Tulsa

1.53

Model SuggestionAway +27.1% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 23.8%

Bet Hit 58% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.33)