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Monterey Bay vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 23:00

Monterey Bay

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+27.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-115.7%0-212.0%0-36.1%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.7%1-111.7%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-02.9%2-14.4%2-23.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.6% 38.2% 2.62 -56.5%

Draw 29.4% 29.4% 3.40 -0.0%

Away win 54.1% 42.6% 2.35 +27.1%

Over 2.5 39.8% 54.1% 1.85 -26.4%

Over 3.5 19.6% 31.3% 3.20 -37.3%

BTTS 43.1% 59.9% 1.67 -28.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob43.1%

A 54% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.7%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 0–2 12.0%

#5 1–2✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterey Bay0.8

FC Tulsa1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 0.33

FC TULSA · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Monterey Bay (H) 16.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -56.5%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.0%

FC Tulsa (A) 54.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterey Bay face FC Tulsa in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterey Bay a 17% chance, the draw 29% and FC Tulsa 54%, so FC Tulsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Monterey Bay and 1.5 for FC Tulsa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterey Bay are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.33 for FC Tulsa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Monterey Bay vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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