FBC Melgar vs Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Peru - Primera División Apertura - 13 Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi· Arequipa Sunday, May 3, 2026 23:00

FBC Melgar PPG 1.67

2-0 HIT CS3

Cajamarca PPG 1.17

Away· +71.1% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar face Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Cajamarca 28%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FBC Melgar and 1.3 for Cajamarca (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.17 for Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +71.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.6%

Odds: 1.51 EV: -31.1%

Draw 26.8%

Odds: 4.10 EV: +9.9%

Away 27.6%

Odds: 6.20 EV: +71.1%

Model lean: BTTS ✘ Miss

1X2 pick: Home → Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.5% Odds: 1.83 +7.0%

Over 3.5 36.1% Odds: 3.10 +11.9%

BTTS 61.7% Odds: 1.85 +14.1%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✔

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FBC Melgar

1.73

Cajamarca

1.31

Model SuggestionBTTS +14.1% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+71.1%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 64%

BTTS/No 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 54% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)