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FBC Melgar vs Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 13 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 23:00

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cajamarca

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+14.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.3%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.3%1-110.9%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.4%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 66.2% 1.51 -31.1%

Draw 26.8% 24.4% 4.10 +9.9%

Away win 27.6% 16.1% 6.20 +71.1%

Over 2.5 58.5% 54.6% 1.83 +7.0%

Over 3.5 36.1% 32.3% 3.10 +11.9%

BTTS 61.7% 54.1% 1.85 +14.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0✓ 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBC Melgar1.7

Cajamarca1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.67

CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

FBC Melgar (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -31.1%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +9.9%

Cajamarca (A) 27.6%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +71.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar face Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Cajamarca 28%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FBC Melgar and 1.3 for Cajamarca (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.17 for Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +71.1%. This match finished 2-0.

FBC Melgar vs Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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