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Guarani vs Nacional Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 19 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 23:00

Guarani

PPG 1.89 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nacional

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.5%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.3%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.0%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.7%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 41.0% 2.44 +2.5%

Draw 29.6% 32.8% 3.05 -9.7%

Away win 28.4% 35.1% 2.85 -19.1%

Over 2.5 48.7% 41.7% 2.40 +16.9%

Over 3.5 26.9% 21.1% 4.75 +27.8%

BTTS 54.7% 51.3% 1.95 +6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani1.5

Nacional1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI · PPG 1.89

NACIONAL · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Guarani (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +2.5%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -9.7%

Nacional (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani face Nacional in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Nacional 28%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Guarani and 1.2 for Nacional (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.22 for Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Guarani vs Nacional Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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