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Austin vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 21:30

Austin

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

St. Louis City

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.4%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.2%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.6%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 40.0% 2.50 +25.0%

Draw 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -5.5%

Away win 23.0% 38.5% 2.60 -40.2%

Over 2.5 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 35.7% 2.80 -9.8%

BTTS 57.4% 63.7% 1.57 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.4%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austin1.7

St. Louis City1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTIN · PPG 1.60

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 0.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=50.0%

Win probability 1X2

Austin (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +25.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.5%

St. Louis City (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -40.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin face St. Louis City in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin a 50% chance, the draw 27% and St. Louis City 23%, so Austin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Austin and 1.1 for St. Louis City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.40 for St. Louis City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Austin vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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