Austin vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

USA - Major League Soccer Regular Season - 11 Q2 Stadium· Austin Sunday, May 3, 2026 21:30

Austin PPG 1.60

2-0 HIT CS3

St. Louis City PPG 0.40

Home· +25.0% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin face St. Louis City in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin a 50% chance, the draw 27% and St. Louis City 23%, so Austin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Austin and 1.1 for St. Louis City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.40 for St. Louis City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.0%

Odds: 2.50 EV: +25.0%

Draw 27.0%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -5.5%

Away 23.0%

Odds: 2.60 EV: -40.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 54.6% Odds: 1.70 -7.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% Odds: 2.80 -9.8%

BTTS 57.4% Odds: 1.57 -9.9%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✔

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Austin

1.74

St. Louis City

1.13

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.9% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-9.9%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 50% (48 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=50.0%