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Cobreloa vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 21:30

Cobreloa

PPG 2.60 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Antofagasta

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+12.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.8%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.7%1-110.6%1-26.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.8%3-15.9%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.1%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Draw 26.1% 29.9% 3.35 -12.6%

Away win 24.0% 23.8% 4.20 +0.8%

Over 2.5 58.7% 48.8% 2.05 +20.3%

Over 3.5 36.3% 27.0% 3.70 +34.3%

BTTS 60.8% 54.1% 1.85 +12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.8%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobreloa1.8

Antofagasta1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRELOA · PPG 2.60

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 1.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=49.9%

Win probability 1X2

Cobreloa (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -11.7%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.6%

Antofagasta (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobreloa face Antofagasta in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobreloa a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Antofagasta 24%, so Cobreloa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cobreloa and 1.2 for Antofagasta (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobreloa are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.60 for Antofagasta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Cobreloa vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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