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Internacional vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 21:30

Internacional

PPG 0.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fluminense

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.7%0-27.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.5%1-112.8%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.2%2-17.1%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.9%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 45.0% 2.22 -36.5%

Draw 30.9% 31.3% 3.20 -1.1%

Away win 40.5% 30.8% 3.25 +31.6%

Over 2.5 44.3% 45.5% 2.20 -2.5%

Over 3.5 23.1% 23.8% 4.20 -3.0%

BTTS 51.3% 52.6% 1.90 -2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.3%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional1.1

Fluminense1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 0.71

FLUMINENSE · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

52%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Internacional (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -36.5%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -1.1%

Fluminense (A) 40.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional face Fluminense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional a 29% chance, the draw 31% and Fluminense 41%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Internacional and 1.3 for Fluminense (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.33 for Fluminense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Internacional vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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