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Chapecoense vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 21:30

Chapecoense

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bragantino

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.6%0-27.5%0-33.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.7%1-112.4%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.1%2-17.3%2-25.2%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.0%3-12.9%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.2% 28.6% 3.50 +2.2%

Draw 29.9% 30.3% 3.30 -1.3%

Away win 40.9% 48.1% 2.08 -14.9%

Over 2.5 48.2% 50.0% 2.00 -3.6%

Over 3.5 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -7.6%

BTTS 54.4% 56.5% 1.77 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.4%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–2✓ 8.9%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapecoense1.2

Bragantino1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPECOENSE · PPG 1.00

BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Chapecoense (H) 29.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.2%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.3%

Bragantino (A) 40.9%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapecoense face Bragantino in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapecoense a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Bragantino 41%, so Bragantino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chapecoense and 1.4 for Bragantino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapecoense are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Bragantino. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Chapecoense vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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