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Gotham FC W vs R. Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 21:00

Gotham FC W

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

R. Louisville W

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.5%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.8%1-111.9%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.4%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-15.0%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 76.9% 1.30 -34.1%

Draw 28.8% 23.1% 4.33 +24.7%

Away win 20.5% 10.5% 9.50 +94.8%

Over 2.5 46.0% 56.5% 1.77 -18.6%

Over 3.5 24.6% 34.5% 2.90 -28.7%

BTTS 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.0%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0✓ 12.8%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gotham FC W1.6

R. Louisville W0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOTHAM FC W · PPG 1.25

R. LOUISVILLE W · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Gotham FC W (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -34.1%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +24.7%

R. Louisville W (A) 20.5%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +94.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gotham FC W face R. Louisville W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gotham FC W a 51% chance, the draw 29% and R. Louisville W 21%, so Gotham FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gotham FC W and 0.9 for R. Louisville W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gotham FC W are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.00 for R. Louisville W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +94.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Gotham FC W vs R. Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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