Gotham FC W vs R. Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

USA - NWSL Women Group Stage Sports Illustrated Stadium· Harrison Sunday, May 3, 2026 21:00

Gotham FC W PPG 1.25

1-0 HIT CS2

R. Louisville W PPG 0.00

Away· +94.8% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Gotham FC W face R. Louisville W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gotham FC W a 51% chance, the draw 29% and R. Louisville W 21%, so Gotham FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gotham FC W and 0.9 for R. Louisville W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gotham FC W are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.00 for R. Louisville W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +94.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.7%

Odds: 1.30 EV: -34.1%

Draw 28.8%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +24.7%

Away 20.5%

Odds: 9.50 EV: +94.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.0% Odds: 1.77 -18.6%

Over 3.5 24.6% Odds: 2.90 -28.7%

BTTS 50.0% Odds: 2.10 +5.0%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✔

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Gotham FC W

1.58

R. Louisville W

0.93

Model SuggestionHome -34.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -34.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+94.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data