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Alianza A. vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 20:30

Alianza A.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Sport Huancayo

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-19.5%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.8%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.6%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.9%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 52.9% 1.89 -14.0%

Draw 31.7% 29.4% 3.40 +7.8%

Away win 22.7% 24.4% 4.10 -6.9%

Over 2.5 38.5% 46.5% 2.15 -17.2%

Over 3.5 18.6% 23.8% 4.20 -21.9%

BTTS 45.3% 51.8% 1.93 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.3%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza A.1.3

Sport Huancayo0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA A. · PPG 1.50

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=45.5%

Win probability 1X2

Alianza A. (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -14.0%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +7.8%

Sport Huancayo (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza A. face Sport Huancayo in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza A. a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Sport Huancayo 23%, so Alianza A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Alianza A. and 0.9 for Sport Huancayo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza A. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for Sport Huancayo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Alianza A. vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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