Alianza A. vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Peru - Primera División Apertura - 13 Estadio Campeones del 36· Sullana Sunday, May 3, 2026 20:30

Alianza A. PPG 1.50

4-1 MISS

Sport Huancayo PPG 0.33

Draw· +7.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza A. face Sport Huancayo in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza A. a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Sport Huancayo 23%, so Alianza A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Alianza A. and 0.9 for Sport Huancayo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza A. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for Sport Huancayo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.5%

Odds: 1.89 EV: -14.0%

Draw 31.7%

Odds: 3.40 EV: +7.8%

Away 22.7%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -6.9%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.5% Odds: 2.15 -17.2%

Over 3.5 18.6% Odds: 4.20 -21.9%

BTTS 45.3% Odds: 1.93 -12.6%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alianza A.

1.34

Sport Huancayo

0.89

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=45.5%