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Ittihad Tanger vs FAR Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 20:00

Ittihad Tanger

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

FAR Rabat

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLD

// Model verdict

Away 56% chance

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-117.5%0-211.7%0-35.2%0-4+2.3%1 1-09.1%1-112.2%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-03.2%2-14.2%2-22.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.6% 22.2% 4.50 -20.8%

Draw 32.1% 29.9% 3.35 +7.5%

Away win 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Over 2.5 33.1% 46.5% 2.15 -28.8%

Over 3.5 14.8% 25.3% 3.95 -41.5%

BTTS 38.7% 51.3% 1.95 -24.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob38.7%

A 50% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.5%

#2 0–0✓ 13.2%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–2 11.7%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ittihad Tanger0.7

FAR Rabat1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.1% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ITTIHAD TANGER · PPG 1.00

FAR RABAT · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

56%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ittihad Tanger (H) 17.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -20.8%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +7.5%

FAR Rabat (A) 50.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ittihad Tanger face FAR Rabat in Morocco - Botola Pro on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ittihad Tanger a 18% chance, the draw 32% and FAR Rabat 50%, so FAR Rabat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ittihad Tanger and 1.3 for FAR Rabat (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ittihad Tanger are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for FAR Rabat. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Ittihad Tanger vs FAR Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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