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Godoy Cruz vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:30

Godoy Cruz

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Deportivo Moron

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-113.8%0-26.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.9%1-113.5%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.3%2-16.6%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% 52.4% 1.91 -35.1%

Draw 36.1% 35.7% 2.80 +1.1%

Away win 29.9% 22.2% 4.50 +34.5%

Over 2.5 29.0% 33.9% 2.95 -14.4%

Over 3.5 12.1% 14.3% 7.00 -15.3%

BTTS 39.0% 41.7% 2.40 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob39.0%

D 36% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Godoy Cruz1.0

Deportivo Moron0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GODOY CRUZ · PPG 1.80

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Godoy Cruz (H) 34.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -35.1%

Draw 36.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.1%

Deportivo Moron (A) 29.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Godoy Cruz face Deportivo Moron in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Godoy Cruz a 34% chance, the draw 36% and Deportivo Moron 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Godoy Cruz and 0.9 for Deportivo Moron (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Godoy Cruz are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Moron. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Godoy Cruz vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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