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New York City vs DC United Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

New York City

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

DC United

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.2%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.9%1-110.0%1-26.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.8%3-16.2%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.6%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 60.2% 1.66 -15.5%

Draw 25.2% 26.3% 3.80 -4.2%

Away win 23.8% 20.6% 4.85 +15.4%

Over 2.5 61.8% 54.6% 1.83 +13.1%

Over 3.5 39.5% 32.3% 3.10 +22.4%

BTTS 62.9% 56.5% 1.77 +11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.9%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York City1.9

DC United1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK CITY · PPG 1.33

DC UNITED · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

New York City (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -15.5%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.2%

DC United (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York City face DC United in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City a 51% chance, the draw 25% and DC United 24%, so New York City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for New York City and 1.3 for DC United (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for DC United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 0-2.

New York City vs DC United Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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