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S. Wanderers vs Deportes Temuco Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

S. Wanderers

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Deportes Temuco

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.6%0-24.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.2%1-110.7%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.2%3-14.8%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 51.3% 1.95 -22.8%

Draw 27.0% 29.9% 3.35 -9.6%

Away win 33.4% 29.4% 3.40 +13.6%

Over 2.5 60.2% 55.6% 1.80 +8.4%

Over 3.5 37.8% 33.3% 3.00 +13.4%

BTTS 63.8% 60.6% 1.65 +5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.8%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2✓ 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Wanderers1.6

Deportes Temuco1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

S. WANDERERS · PPG 1.75

DEPORTES TEMUCO · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

S. Wanderers (H) 39.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -22.8%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.6%

Deportes Temuco (A) 33.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Wanderers face Deportes Temuco in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Wanderers a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Deportes Temuco 33%, so S. Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for S. Wanderers and 1.5 for Deportes Temuco (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Wanderers are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.40 for Deportes Temuco. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 2-2.

S. Wanderers vs Deportes Temuco Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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