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Sao Paulo vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

Sao Paulo

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Bahia

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-19.0%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.7%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-18.9%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 50.3% 1.99 -9.8%

Draw 30.8% 30.3% 3.30 +1.6%

Away win 23.9% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Over 2.5 42.1% 47.6% 2.10 -11.6%

Over 3.5 21.4% 26.7% 3.75 -19.8%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Paulo1.4

Bahia1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO PAULO · PPG 2.50

BAHIA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sao Paulo (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -9.8%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +1.6%

Bahia (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Paulo face Bahia in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Paulo a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Bahia 24%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sao Paulo and 1.0 for Bahia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Paulo are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Bahia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Sao Paulo vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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