Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Brazil - Serie A Regular Season - 14 Estádio do Maracanã· Rio de Janeiro Sunday, May 3, 2026 19:00

Flamengo PPG 2.60

2-2 MISS

Vasco da Gama PPG 0.50

Over2.5· +0.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo face Vasco da Gama in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo a 62% chance, the draw 24% and Vasco da Gama 15%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Flamengo and 0.9 for Vasco da Gama (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Vasco da Gama. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.5%

Odds: 1.53 EV: -5.9%

Draw 23.7%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -2.8%

Away 14.8%

Odds: 5.90 EV: -12.7%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.9% Odds: 1.80 +0.6%

Over 3.5 33.5% Odds: 3.00 +0.5%

BTTS 53.2% Odds: 1.85 -1.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Flamengo

2.01

Vasco da Gama

0.91

Model SuggestionHome -5.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -5.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+0.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5/Under 48%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 56% (27 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=61.5%