Today / Brazil - Serie A / Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama

Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

Flamengo

PPG 2.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Vasco da Gama

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.8%1-19.9%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-16.6%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 65.4% 1.53 -5.9%

Draw 23.7% 24.4% 4.10 -2.8%

Away win 14.8% 16.9% 5.90 -12.7%

Over 2.5 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Over 3.5 33.5% 33.3% 3.00 +0.5%

BTTS 53.2% 54.1% 1.85 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.2%

H 62% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo2.0

Vasco da Gama0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.60

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=61.5%

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -5.9%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.8%

Vasco da Gama (A) 14.8%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo face Vasco da Gama in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo a 62% chance, the draw 24% and Vasco da Gama 15%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Flamengo and 0.9 for Vasco da Gama (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Vasco da Gama. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions