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Patronato vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

Patronato

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Nueva Chicago

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.3%0-119.6%0-29.1%0-32.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.3%1-112.3%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.1%2-13.8%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.9%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% 48.8% 2.05 -55.3%

Draw 39.1% 36.4% 2.75 +7.5%

Away win 39.0% 25.0% 4.00 +56.0%

Over 2.5 20.3% 32.3% 3.10 -37.1%

Over 3.5 7.2% 14.3% 7.00 -49.6%

BTTS 29.8% 41.7% 2.40 -28.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob29.8%

A 39% / xG 0.6-0.9 / U2.5 20% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.3%

#2 0–1 19.6%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 1–0 13.3%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato0.6

Nueva Chicago0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 20.3% · O3.5 PROB 7.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.00

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

39%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 21.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -55.3%

Draw 39.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +7.5%

Nueva Chicago (A) 39.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +56.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face Nueva Chicago in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 22% chance, the draw 39% and Nueva Chicago 39%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Patronato and 0.9 for Nueva Chicago (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Nueva Chicago. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +56.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Patronato vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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