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Gimnasia Jujuy vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:30

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.4%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-110.3%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.4%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 54.6% 1.83 +8.2%

Draw 24.8% 37.7% 2.65 -34.3%

Away win 16.1% 17.4% 5.75 -7.4%

Over 2.5 54.2% 35.7% 2.80 +51.8%

Over 3.5 31.9% 18.2% 5.50 +75.4%

BTTS 53.2% 43.5% 2.30 +22.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.2%

H 59% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.3%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Jujuy1.9

Deportivo Maipu0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 3.00

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Jujuy (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +8.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -34.3%

Deportivo Maipu (A) 16.1%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Deportivo Maipu in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Maipu 16%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.9 for Deportivo Maipu (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Deportivo Maipu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +75.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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