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Gimnasia Jujuy vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Argentina - Primera Nacional logo Argentina flag Argentina - Primera Nacional Regular Season - 12 Estadio 23 de Agosto· Jujuy Sunday, May 3, 2026 18:30
Gimnasia Jujuy logo Gimnasia Jujuy PPG 3.00
1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Deportivo Maipu logo Deportivo Maipu PPG 0.40
Over3.5· +75.4% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Deportivo Maipu in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Maipu 16%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.9 for Deportivo Maipu (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Deportivo Maipu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +75.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.1%
Odds: 1.83 EV: +8.2%
Draw 24.8%
Odds: 2.65 EV: -34.3%
Away 16.1%
Odds: 5.75 EV: -7.4%
Model lean: Home
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 54.2% Odds: 2.80 +51.8%
Over 3.5 31.9% Odds: 5.50 +75.4%
BTTS 53.2% Odds: 2.30 +22.4%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-0
3rd 2-1
4th 1-0
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Gimnasia Jujuy
1.92
Deportivo Maipu
0.93

Model Suggestion

Home +8.2% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+75.4%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=59.1%

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