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Ciudad Bolivar vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

Ferro Carril

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.3%0-115.2%0-24.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.3%1-111.3%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.5%2-14.2%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.9%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 40.8% 2.45 -16.2%

Draw 43.2% 38.2% 2.62 +13.2%

Away win 22.6% 31.3% 3.20 -27.7%

Over 2.5 14.3% 29.9% 3.35 -52.1%

Over 3.5 4.3% 12.5% 8.00 -65.6%

BTTS 24.0% 40.8% 2.45 -41.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob24.0%

H 34% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 14% / NoBTTS 24%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 27.3%

#2 1–0 20.3%

#3 0–1 15.2%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciudad Bolivar0.7

Ferro Carril0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 14.3% · O3.5 PROB 4.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.50

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Ciudad Bolivar (H) 34.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.2%

Draw 43.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +13.2%

Ferro Carril (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad Bolivar face Ferro Carril in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad Bolivar a 34% chance, the draw 43% and Ferro Carril 23%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ciudad Bolivar and 0.6 for Ferro Carril (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 14% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 24% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad Bolivar are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.83 for Ferro Carril. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 2-4.

Ciudad Bolivar vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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