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Las Palmas vs Valladolid Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

Las Palmas

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Valladolid

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 53% chance

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.2%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.2%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.1%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Draw 30.0% 29.0% 3.45 +3.5%

Away win 19.8% 23.8% 4.20 -16.8%

Over 2.5 41.5% 50.0% 2.00 -17.0%

Over 3.5 20.9% 27.4% 3.65 -23.7%

BTTS 46.3% 54.6% 1.83 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.3%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Palmas1.5

Valladolid0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS PALMAS · PPG 2.00

VALLADOLID · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Las Palmas (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -7.1%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +3.5%

Valladolid (A) 19.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Palmas face Valladolid in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Palmas a 50% chance, the draw 30% and Valladolid 20%, so Las Palmas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Las Palmas and 0.9 for Valladolid (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Palmas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.94 for Valladolid. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Las Palmas vs Valladolid Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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