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Inter Milan vs Parma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:45

Inter Milan

PPG 2.41 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Parma

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.2%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-110.0%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.1%3-16.2%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-14.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.3% 82.6% 1.21 -23.4%

Draw 24.1% 16.1% 6.20 +49.4%

Away win 12.6% 8.0% 12.50 +57.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 66.7% 1.50 -24.3%

Over 3.5 28.4% 44.4% 2.25 -36.1%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 63% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Milan1.9

Parma0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MILAN · PPG 2.41

PARMA · PPG 1.41

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.41) vs P(Home)=63.3%

Win probability 1X2

Inter Milan (H) 63.3%

ODDS 1.21 · IMPLIED 82.6% EV -23.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +49.4%

Parma (A) 12.6%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV +57.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Milan face Parma in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Milan a 63% chance, the draw 24% and Parma 13%, so Inter Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Inter Milan and 0.8 for Parma (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Milan are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 1.41 for Parma. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Inter Milan vs Parma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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