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Arema vs Persis Solo Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 08:30

Arema

PPG 1.31 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Persis Solo

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.7%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.6%1-18.5%1-24.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.5%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-17.4%4+-23.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% 56.5% 1.77 +18.6%

Draw 18.4% 27.8% 3.60 -33.8%

Away win 14.6% 26.0% 3.85 -43.8%

Over 2.5 63.7% 60.6% 1.65 +5.1%

Over 3.5 41.6% 38.5% 2.60 +8.2%

BTTS 56.2% 64.5% 1.55 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.2%

H 67% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 8.6%

#4 1–1 8.5%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arema2.3

Persis Solo1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AREMA · PPG 1.31

PERSIS SOLO · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.85)

Win probability 1X2

Arema (H) 67.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +18.6%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -33.8%

Persis Solo (A) 14.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -43.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arema face Persis Solo in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arema a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Persis Solo 15%, so Arema are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Arema and 1.0 for Persis Solo (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arema are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.85 for Persis Solo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Arema vs Persis Solo Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions