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Eldense vs Marbella Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:30

Eldense

PPG 2.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Marbella

PPG 0.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home 67% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.8%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.4%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 71.4% 1.40 -22.0%

Draw 27.7% 24.4% 4.10 +13.6%

Away win 16.7% 14.3% 7.00 +16.9%

Over 2.5 45.3% 54.1% 1.85 -16.2%

Over 3.5 24.0% 32.3% 3.10 -25.6%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eldense1.7

Marbella0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ELDENSE · PPG 2.47

MARBELLA · PPG 0.59

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.47) vs P(Home)=55.7%

Win probability 1X2

Eldense (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -22.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +13.6%

Marbella (A) 16.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eldense face Marbella in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eldense a 56% chance, the draw 28% and Marbella 17%, so Eldense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Eldense and 0.8 for Marbella (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eldense are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 0.59 for Marbella. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Eldense vs Marbella Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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