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Almirante Brown vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:30

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Chaco For Ever

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-111.0%0-24.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.0%1-112.9%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-17.6%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.0%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 45.5% 2.20 -3.9%

Draw 34.4% 37.7% 2.65 -8.8%

Away win 21.8% 26.3% 3.80 -17.2%

Over 2.5 30.4% 29.4% 3.40 +3.4%

Over 3.5 13.0% 12.5% 8.00 +4.0%

BTTS 38.6% 39.2% 2.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob38.6%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–0✓ 17.0%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown1.2

Chaco For Ever0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.50

CHACO FOR EVER · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=43.7%

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -3.9%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -8.8%

Chaco For Ever (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face Chaco For Ever in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 44% chance, the draw 34% and Chaco For Ever 22%, so Almirante Brown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Almirante Brown and 0.8 for Chaco For Ever (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.20 for Chaco For Ever. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Almirante Brown vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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