Juan Pablo II vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Peru - Primera División Apertura - 13 Estadio Municipal de la Juventud· Chongoyape Sunday, May 3, 2026 18:15

Juan Pablo II PPG 1.33

1-4 MISS

Universitario PPG 0.60

Home· +43.5% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II face Universitario in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Universitario 42%, so Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Juan Pablo II and 1.7 for Universitario (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.60 for Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.5%. This match finished 1-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 31.2%

Odds: 4.60 EV: +43.5%

Draw 26.5%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -5.9%

Away 42.2%

Odds: 1.75 EV: -26.2%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.2% Odds: 2.00 +22.4%

Over 3.5 38.9% Odds: 3.50 +36.1%

BTTS 64.3% Odds: 1.83 +17.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Juan Pablo II

1.45

Universitario

1.71

Model SuggestionBTTS +17.7% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+43.5%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 64%

BTTS/No 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 54% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.60)