Today / Peru - Primera División / Juan Pablo II vs Universitario

Juan Pablo II vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:15

Juan Pablo II

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Universitario

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+17.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.2%0-26.2%0-33.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.1%1-110.5%1-29.0%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.6%2-26.5%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.2%3-13.7%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 21.7% 4.60 +43.5%

Draw 26.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.9%

Away win 42.2% 57.1% 1.75 -26.2%

Over 2.5 61.2% 50.0% 2.00 +22.4%

Over 3.5 38.9% 28.6% 3.50 +36.1%

BTTS 64.3% 54.6% 1.83 +17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.3%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juan Pablo II1.5

Universitario1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAN PABLO II · PPG 1.33

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Juan Pablo II (H) 31.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +43.5%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.9%

Universitario (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II face Universitario in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Universitario 42%, so Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Juan Pablo II and 1.7 for Universitario (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.60 for Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.5%. This match finished 1-4.

Juan Pablo II vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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