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Al Quadisiya vs Al Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:00

Al Quadisiya

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Nassr

PPG 2.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 70% chance

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-17.2%0-26.1%0-33.4%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.3%1-110.6%1-28.9%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.8%2-26.5%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.3%3-13.8%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 31.3% 3.20 +2.4%

Draw 26.6% 25.0% 4.00 +6.4%

Away win 41.4% 51.3% 1.95 -19.3%

Over 2.5 61.1% 70.4% 1.42 -13.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% 47.6% 2.10 -18.5%

BTTS 64.3% 72.5% 1.38 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.3%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Quadisiya1.5

Al Nassr1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL QUADISIYA · PPG 2.20

AL NASSR · PPG 2.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.47)

Win probability 1X2

Al Quadisiya (H) 32.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +6.4%

Al Nassr (A) 41.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Quadisiya face Al Nassr in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Quadisiya a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Al Nassr 41%, so Al Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Quadisiya and 1.7 for Al Nassr (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Quadisiya are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.47 for Al Nassr. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Al Quadisiya vs Al Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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