Al Quadisiya vs Al Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 31 Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium· Dammam Sunday, May 3, 2026 18:00

Al Quadisiya PPG 2.20

3-1 MISS

Al Nassr PPG 2.47

Draw· +6.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Quadisiya face Al Nassr in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Quadisiya a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Al Nassr 41%, so Al Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Quadisiya and 1.7 for Al Nassr (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Quadisiya are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.47 for Al Nassr. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 32.0%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +2.4%

Draw 26.6%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +6.4%

Away 41.4%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -19.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.1% Odds: 1.42 -13.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% Odds: 2.10 -18.5%

BTTS 64.3% Odds: 1.38 -11.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Quadisiya

1.47

Al Nassr

1.69

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+6.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.47)