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Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Akhdoud Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League logo Saudi-Arabia flag Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 31 King Abdullah Sports City· Jeddah Sunday, May 3, 2026 18:00
Al Ahli Jeddah logo Al Ahli Jeddah PPG 2.57
4-0 MISS
Al Akhdoud logo Al Akhdoud PPG 0.29
Away· +63.8% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli Jeddah face Al Akhdoud in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli Jeddah a 75% chance, the draw 18% and Al Akhdoud 8%, so Al Ahli Jeddah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Al Ahli Jeddah and 0.7 for Al Akhdoud (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.29 for Al Akhdoud. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +63.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 74.5%
Odds: 1.12 EV: -16.6%
Draw 17.8%
Odds: 7.60 EV: +35.3%
Away 7.8%
Odds: 21.00 EV: +63.8%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.3% Odds: 1.33 -18.5%
Over 3.5 39.0% Odds: 1.83 -28.6%
BTTS 47.8% Odds: 2.10 +0.4%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 3-0
3rd 1-0
4th 2-1
5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Ahli Jeddah
2.45
Al Akhdoud
0.71

Model Suggestion

Home -16.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -16.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+63.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%
O2.5/Under 56%
BTTS/No 56%
Score Hit 50%
ROI -4.1%
Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
95%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.57), Away POOR (0.29) - Strong consensus

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