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Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Akhdoud Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:00

Al Ahli Jeddah

PPG 2.57 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Akhdoud

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.5% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.0%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-17.4%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.4%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-18.1%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.5% 89.3% 1.12 -16.6%

Draw 17.8% 13.2% 7.60 +35.3%

Away win 7.8% 4.8% 21.00 +63.8%

Over 2.5 61.3% 75.2% 1.33 -18.5%

Over 3.5 39.0% 54.6% 1.83 -28.6%

BTTS 47.8% 47.6% 2.10 +0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.8%

H 74% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 3–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 1–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahli Jeddah2.5

Al Akhdoud0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLI JEDDAH · PPG 2.57

AL AKHDOUD · PPG 0.29

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.57), Away POOR (0.29) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahli Jeddah (H) 74.5%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -16.6%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +35.3%

Al Akhdoud (A) 7.8%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +63.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli Jeddah face Al Akhdoud in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli Jeddah a 75% chance, the draw 18% and Al Akhdoud 8%, so Al Ahli Jeddah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Al Ahli Jeddah and 0.7 for Al Akhdoud (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.29 for Al Akhdoud. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +63.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Akhdoud Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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