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Raja Casablanca vs Difaa El Jadida Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:00

Raja Casablanca

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Difaa El Jadida

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-110.2%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-112.0%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-17.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 78.1% 1.28 -38.6%

Draw 34.8% 22.2% 4.50 +56.6%

Away win 17.2% 10.0% 10.00 +72.0%

Over 2.5 26.3% 51.3% 1.95 -48.7%

Over 3.5 10.5% 28.6% 3.50 -63.2%

BTTS 33.1% 40.0% 2.50 -17.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.1%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 1–0✓ 19.8%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Raja Casablanca1.2

Difaa El Jadida0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.3% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RAJA CASABLANCA · PPG 2.33

DIFAA EL JADIDA · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=48.0%

Win probability 1X2

Raja Casablanca (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -38.6%

Draw 34.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +56.6%

Difaa El Jadida (A) 17.2%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +72.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Raja Casablanca face Difaa El Jadida in Morocco - Botola Pro on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Raja Casablanca a 48% chance, the draw 35% and Difaa El Jadida 17%, so Raja Casablanca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Raja Casablanca and 0.6 for Difaa El Jadida (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Raja Casablanca are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Difaa El Jadida. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +72.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Raja Casablanca vs Difaa El Jadida Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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