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Atletico Mitre vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Mitre

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Acassuso

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-113.5%0-25.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.3%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.6%2-16.7%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.2%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 61.0% 1.64 -42.4%

Draw 36.1% 33.3% 3.00 +8.3%

Away win 28.8% 15.4% 6.50 +87.2%

Over 2.5 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

Over 3.5 12.0% 15.4% 6.50 -22.0%

BTTS 38.8% 36.4% 2.75 +6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob38.8%

D 36% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Mitre1.0

Acassuso0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 1.00

ACASSUSO · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Mitre (H) 35.1%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -42.4%

Draw 36.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.3%

Acassuso (A) 28.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +87.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Mitre face Acassuso in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Mitre a 35% chance, the draw 36% and Acassuso 29%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Atletico Mitre and 0.9 for Acassuso (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Mitre are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Acassuso. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +87.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Atletico Mitre vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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