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Almagro vs Temperley Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:00

Almagro

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Temperley

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.2%0-119.0%0-27.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-112.2%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.8%2-13.9%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.0%3-10.8%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 36.4% 2.75 -33.2%

Draw 40.7% 38.5% 2.60 +5.8%

Away win 35.0% 34.5% 2.90 +1.5%

Over 2.5 18.2% 30.3% 3.30 -39.9%

Over 3.5 6.1% 12.5% 8.00 -51.2%

BTTS 28.3% 40.8% 2.45 -30.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob28.3%

A 35% / xG 0.6-0.8 / U2.5 18% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.2%

#2 0–1 19.0%

#3 1–1✓ 12.2%

#4 1–0 14.8%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almagro0.6

Temperley0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 18.2% · O3.5 PROB 6.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMAGRO · PPG 1.50

TEMPERLEY · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Almagro (H) 24.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -33.2%

Draw 40.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +5.8%

Temperley (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almagro face Temperley in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almagro a 24% chance, the draw 41% and Temperley 35%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Almagro and 0.8 for Temperley (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 18% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almagro are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Temperley. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Almagro vs Temperley Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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