Today / USA - NWSL Women / Chicago RS W vs Portland T. W

Chicago RS W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:00

Chicago RS W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Portland T. W

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Away 58% chance

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-112.8%0-210.8%0-36.1%0-4+3.8%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.0%2-15.1%2-24.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.9% 23.1% 4.33 -22.5%

Draw 27.4% 28.2% 3.55 -2.7%

Away win 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Over 2.5 47.8% 51.8% 1.93 -7.8%

Over 3.5 26.1% 29.9% 3.35 -12.6%

BTTS 49.8% 55.6% 1.80 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob49.8%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 0–1 12.8%

#3 0–2✓ 10.8%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago RS W0.9

Portland T. W1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO RS W · PPG 1.50

PORTLAND T. W · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Chicago RS W (H) 17.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -22.5%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.7%

Portland T. W (A) 54.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago RS W face Portland T. W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago RS W a 18% chance, the draw 27% and Portland T. W 55%, so Portland T. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Chicago RS W and 1.7 for Portland T. W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago RS W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.75 for Portland T. W. This match finished 0-2.

Chicago RS W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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