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Hajduk Split vs Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:45

Hajduk Split

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Varazdin

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.8%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.1%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.4%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 66.7% 1.50 -26.8%

Draw 29.1% 26.0% 3.85 +12.0%

Away win 22.1% 16.1% 6.20 +37.0%

Over 2.5 46.6% 55.6% 1.80 -16.1%

Over 3.5 25.0% 33.9% 2.95 -26.3%

BTTS 51.2% 54.6% 1.83 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.2%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hajduk Split1.6

Varazdin1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 2.00

VARAZDIN · PPG 1.13

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.8%

Win probability 1X2

Hajduk Split (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -26.8%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +12.0%

Varazdin (A) 22.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +37.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hajduk Split face Varazdin in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hajduk Split a 49% chance, the draw 29% and Varazdin 22%, so Hajduk Split are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hajduk Split and 1.0 for Varazdin (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hajduk Split are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Varazdin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Hajduk Split vs Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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