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Magallanes vs Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:30

Magallanes

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Copiapo

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.9%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.1%1-111.5%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 44.4% 2.25 +8.2%

Draw 27.7% 31.3% 3.20 -11.4%

Away win 24.2% 33.3% 3.00 -27.4%

Over 2.5 53.2% 48.8% 2.05 +9.1%

Over 3.5 30.9% 27.0% 3.70 +14.3%

BTTS 56.8% 55.6% 1.80 +2.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.8%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magallanes1.7

Copiapo1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.00

COPIAPO · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Magallanes (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +8.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.4%

Copiapo (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magallanes face Copiapo in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magallanes a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Copiapo 24%, so Magallanes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Magallanes and 1.1 for Copiapo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magallanes are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Copiapo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Magallanes vs Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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