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Real Sociedad B vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:30

Real Sociedad B

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Burgos

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-111.2%0-26.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.7%1-113.1%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.2%2-17.6%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.4%3-13.0%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 35.2% 2.84 -7.1%

Draw 31.7% 32.8% 3.05 -3.3%

Away win 35.6% 39.2% 2.55 -9.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 21.9% 23.8% 4.20 -8.0%

BTTS 50.5% 54.6% 1.83 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.5%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0✓ 9.2%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad B1.2

Burgos1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD B · PPG 1.44

BURGOS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad B (H) 32.7%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -7.1%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -3.3%

Burgos (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad B face Burgos in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad B a 33% chance, the draw 32% and Burgos 36%, so Burgos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Sociedad B and 1.2 for Burgos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad B are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.50 for Burgos. This match finished 0-0.

Real Sociedad B vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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