Real Sociedad B vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Spain - Segunda División Regular Season - 38 Anoeta· San Sebastian Sunday, May 3, 2026 16:30

Real Sociedad B PPG 1.44

0-0 HIT CS2

Burgos PPG 1.50

Draw· -3.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad B face Burgos in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad B a 33% chance, the draw 32% and Burgos 36%, so Burgos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Sociedad B and 1.2 for Burgos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad B are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.50 for Burgos. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 32.7%

Odds: 2.84 EV: -7.1%

Draw 31.7%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -3.3%

Away 35.6%

Odds: 2.55 EV: -9.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.7% Odds: 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 21.9% Odds: 4.20 -8.0%

BTTS 50.5% Odds: 1.83 -7.6%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✔

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Sociedad B

1.16

Burgos

1.22

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.50)