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Al Tai vs Al Jandal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:25

Al Tai

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Jandal

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.2%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.7%1-111.0%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.8%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.8%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 57.1% 1.75 -11.1%

Draw 26.6% 29.0% 3.45 -8.2%

Away win 22.5% 23.8% 4.20 -5.5%

Over 2.5 55.5% 54.6% 1.83 +1.6%

Over 3.5 33.2% 32.3% 3.10 +2.9%

BTTS 57.9% 58.8% 1.70 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.9%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Tai1.8

Al Jandal1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TAI · PPG 1.13

AL JANDAL · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Al Tai (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -11.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.2%

Al Jandal (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Tai face Al Jandal in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Tai a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Al Jandal 23%, so Al Tai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Tai and 1.1 for Al Jandal (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Tai are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.80 for Al Jandal. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Al Tai vs Al Jandal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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