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Sabadell vs Real Murcia Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:15

Sabadell

PPG 2.06 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Real Murcia

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-19.9%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.5%1-112.5%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-17.9%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-13.3%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 58.8% 1.70 -19.3%

Draw 33.2% 30.3% 3.30 +9.6%

Away win 19.2% 21.1% 4.75 -8.8%

Over 2.5 31.6% 42.6% 2.35 -25.7%

Over 3.5 13.8% 22.2% 4.50 -37.9%

BTTS 38.4% 46.5% 2.15 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.4%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–0 17.5%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabadell1.3

Real Murcia0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SABADELL · PPG 2.06

REAL MURCIA · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Sabadell (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -19.3%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +9.6%

Real Murcia (A) 19.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabadell face Real Murcia in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabadell a 48% chance, the draw 33% and Real Murcia 19%, so Sabadell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sabadell and 0.7 for Real Murcia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabadell are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.29 for Real Murcia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Sabadell vs Real Murcia Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions