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Al Shabab vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:00

Al Shabab

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Taawon

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.0%0-26.4%0-33.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.9%1-111.1%1-29.0%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-17.8%2-26.2%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.2%3-13.6%3-22.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 50.0% 2.00 -36.8%

Draw 27.5% 27.8% 3.60 -1.0%

Away win 41.0% 29.4% 3.40 +39.4%

Over 2.5 57.8% 59.9% 1.67 -3.5%

Over 3.5 35.4% 37.0% 2.70 -4.4%

BTTS 61.8% 64.5% 1.55 -4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.8%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabab1.4

Al Taawon1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.36

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabab (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -36.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.0%

Al Taawon (A) 41.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +39.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabab face Al Taawon in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabab a 32% chance, the draw 28% and Al Taawon 41%, so Al Taawon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Shabab and 1.6 for Al Taawon (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabab are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.60 for Al Taawon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.4%. This match finished 1-5.

Al Shabab vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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