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S. Cristal vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:00

S. Cristal

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cusco

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.8%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.3%1-19.5%1-26.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.6%2-26.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.9%3-16.4%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.1%4+-23.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 56.8% 1.76 -8.5%

Draw 24.5% 27.4% 3.65 -10.6%

Away win 23.5% 22.7% 4.40 +3.4%

Over 2.5 64.4% 54.1% 1.85 +19.1%

Over 3.5 42.3% 32.3% 3.10 +31.1%

BTTS 64.7% 57.1% 1.75 +13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.7%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 2–2✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Cristal2.0

Cusco1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

S. CRISTAL · PPG 1.67

CUSCO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

S. Cristal (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -8.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.6%

Cusco (A) 23.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Cristal face Cusco in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Cristal a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Cusco 24%, so S. Cristal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for S. Cristal and 1.3 for Cusco (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Cristal are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Cusco. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 2-2.

S. Cristal vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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