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A. Atlanta vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:00

A. Atlanta

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Tristan Suarez

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.1%0-118.6%0-27.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-112.4%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.0%2-14.2%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% 47.6% 2.10 -47.5%

Draw 40.1% 40.8% 2.45 -1.8%

Away win 34.9% 21.1% 4.75 +65.8%

Over 2.5 19.4% 31.3% 3.20 -37.9%

Over 3.5 6.7% 14.3% 7.00 -53.1%

BTTS 29.7% 41.7% 2.40 -28.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob29.7%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 19% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.1%

#2 0–1 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 14.8%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Atlanta0.7

Tristan Suarez0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 19.4% · O3.5 PROB 6.7%

Form & verdict PPG

A. ATLANTA · PPG 1.67

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

A. Atlanta (H) 25.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -47.5%

Draw 40.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -1.8%

Tristan Suarez (A) 34.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +65.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Atlanta face Tristan Suarez in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Atlanta a 25% chance, the draw 40% and Tristan Suarez 35%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for A. Atlanta and 0.8 for Tristan Suarez (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 19% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Atlanta are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Tristan Suarez. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +65.8%. This match finished 3-1.

A. Atlanta vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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