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Juventus vs Hellas Verona Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:00

Juventus

PPG 2.12 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hellas Verona

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.0%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-19.7%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.1%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-14.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 83.3% 1.20 -21.6%

Draw 23.5% 16.0% 6.25 +46.9%

Away win 11.2% 7.4% 13.50 +51.2%

Over 2.5 49.4% 61.7% 1.62 -20.0%

Over 3.5 27.5% 38.5% 2.60 -28.5%

BTTS 44.9% 41.7% 2.40 +7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.9%

H 65% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 1–1✓ 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventus1.9

Hellas Verona0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUS · PPG 2.12

HELLAS VERONA · PPG 0.65

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.12), Away POOR (0.65) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Juventus (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -21.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +46.9%

Hellas Verona (A) 11.2%

ODDS 13.50 · IMPLIED 7.4% EV +51.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventus face Hellas Verona in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventus a 65% chance, the draw 24% and Hellas Verona 11%, so Juventus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Juventus and 0.7 for Hellas Verona (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventus are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.65 for Hellas Verona. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +51.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Juventus vs Hellas Verona Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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