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UD Ibiza vs Sanluqueno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:45

UD Ibiza

PPG 1.53 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Sanluqueno

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-110.4%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-17.8%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 75.2% 1.33 -39.2%

Draw 33.8% 23.1% 4.33 +46.4%

Away win 20.5% 11.4% 8.80 +80.4%

Over 2.5 31.3% 54.1% 1.85 -42.1%

Over 3.5 13.6% 32.3% 3.10 -57.8%

BTTS 38.7% 47.6% 2.10 -18.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.7%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 17.2%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UD Ibiza1.2

Sanluqueno0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UD IBIZA · PPG 1.53

SANLUQUENO · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=45.7%

Win probability 1X2

UD Ibiza (H) 45.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -39.2%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +46.4%

Sanluqueno (A) 20.5%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +80.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UD Ibiza face Sanluqueno in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Ibiza a 46% chance, the draw 34% and Sanluqueno 21%, so UD Ibiza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UD Ibiza and 0.7 for Sanluqueno (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Ibiza are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.71 for Sanluqueno. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +80.4%. This match finished 4-0.

UD Ibiza vs Sanluqueno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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