UD Ibiza vs Sanluqueno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Group 2 - 35 Estadi Municipal de Can Misses· Ibiza Sunday, May 3, 2026 15:45

UD Ibiza PPG 1.53

4-0 MISS

Sanluqueno PPG 0.71

Away· +80.4% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

UD Ibiza face Sanluqueno in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Ibiza a 46% chance, the draw 34% and Sanluqueno 21%, so UD Ibiza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UD Ibiza and 0.7 for Sanluqueno (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Ibiza are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.71 for Sanluqueno. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +80.4%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.7%

Odds: 1.33 EV: -39.2%

Draw 33.8%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +46.4%

Away 20.5%

Odds: 8.80 EV: +80.4%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 31.3% Odds: 1.85 -42.1%

Over 3.5 13.6% Odds: 3.10 -57.8%

BTTS 38.7% Odds: 2.10 -18.7%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

UD Ibiza

1.22

Sanluqueno

0.74

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=45.7%