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UD Ibiza vs Sanluqueno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:45

UD Ibiza

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Sanluqueno

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-110.4%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-17.8%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 75.2% 1.33 -39.2%

Draw 33.8% 23.1% 4.33 +46.4%

Away win 20.5% 11.4% 8.80 +80.4%

Over 2.5 31.3% 54.1% 1.85 -42.1%

Over 3.5 13.6% 32.3% 3.10 -57.8%

BTTS 38.7% 47.6% 2.10 -18.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.7%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 17.2%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UD Ibiza1.2

Sanluqueno0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UD IBIZA · PPG 1.53

SANLUQUENO · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

46%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=45.7%

Win probability 1X2

UD Ibiza (H) 45.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -39.2%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +46.4%

Sanluqueno (A) 20.5%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +80.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UD Ibiza face Sanluqueno in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Ibiza a 46% chance, the draw 34% and Sanluqueno 21%, so UD Ibiza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UD Ibiza and 0.7 for Sanluqueno (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Ibiza are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.71 for Sanluqueno. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +80.4%. This match finished 4-0.

UD Ibiza vs Sanluqueno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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