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Radomlje vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:30

Radomlje

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Maribor

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.8%0-26.7%0-33.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.3%1-110.7%1-29.2%1-35.2%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.4%2-26.3%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.0%3-13.4%3-22.9%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 16.7% 6.00 +77.0%

Draw 26.8% 22.5% 4.45 +19.3%

Away win 43.7% 69.9% 1.43 -37.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 70.4% 1.42 -15.4%

Over 3.5 37.2% 48.8% 2.05 -23.7%

BTTS 62.9% 66.7% 1.50 -5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.9%

A 44% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1✓ 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomlje1.4

Maribor1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMLJE · PPG 1.33

MARIBOR · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Radomlje (H) 29.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +77.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +19.3%

Maribor (A) 43.7%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomlje face Maribor in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomlje a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Maribor 44%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Radomlje and 1.7 for Maribor (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomlje are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.40 for Maribor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +77.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Radomlje vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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